Weather Bot — Episode 14: When 163 Trades Rewrote the Strategy — The v2.9 Overhaul
One month of running the bot. 163 closed trades. Starting capital: $198. Current balance: $199. One dollar. That's what a month of 24/7 automated weather trading on Polymarket got me. The bot was technically profitable — 38 wins, 125 losses, +$6.93 in net profit — but most of that profit was getting eaten by trades that shouldn't have been placed in the first place. So I sat down with the full dataset and let it tell me what to change. What This Post Covers The analysis session that rewrote the bot's strategy from the ground up. Two filters that turned a barely-surviving 23% win rate into a 32% winner with +44% ROI. The eight changes I shipped at once, the deployment that immediately went wrong, and the uncomfortable lesson about the gap between backtesting and real operation. The Number That Started Everything v2.8's full scorecard after one month: Metric Value Total trades 163 Wins / Losses 38 / 125 Win rate 23.3% Net profit +$6.93 Avg win $3.10 A...