Weather Bot — Episode 2: Turning GFS, ECMWF, and ICON Forecasts Into Polymarket Trading Signals
So I had the idea: use professional weather models to find mispriced temperature bets on Polymarket. But there's a gap between "this sounds like it should work" and actually pulling data from three different forecast systems, comparing it to live market prices, and deciding what to buy. This episode is about building that bridge. How I picked the models, how I access them for free, and the part that surprised me most — why I abandoned US cities entirely and started trading Ankara and Buenos Aires instead. What This Post Covers The forecasting pipeline behind WeatherBot — three global weather models accessed through one free API, how Weather Underground actually determines the "right answer," and a city selection decision that went against everything I expected. This is the technical foundation the bot runs on, so if something here doesn't make sense, the later episodes won't either. Three Models, One API I use three global weather models. All o...