Weather Bot — Episode 12: From 15 Cities to 26 — How I Evaluated New Polymarket Weather Markets
Polymarket kept adding weather markets. By late March, I was spotting cities that didn't exist when I started this project two months earlier. Hong Kong, Singapore, Sao Paulo, Madrid — each one a potential new revenue source, or a potential new way to lose money. After the LA disaster in Episode 11, I wasn't about to add cities by guessing which model would work. So I built a pipeline: two weeks of data collection before any real money goes in. No shortcuts. What This Post Covers The expansion from 15 to 26 cities. How I found the new markets, the two-week evaluation process, which cities passed (10 out of 11), which one failed spectacularly, and the quirks I discovered along the way — like a US city that resolves weather from a Space Force base. The Discovery I wrote a script that checked Polymarket's gamma API for temperature markets in every major city I could think of. Eleven new ones came back positive: Asia-Pacific: Hong Kong, Singapore, Taipei, Beijing. ...