Weather Bot — Episode 3: I Lost 7 Straight Weather Trades on Polymarket — Every Mistake Exposed
I almost didn't write this one. After building what I thought was a solid system — three weather models, a clean forecasting pipeline, confidence filters — I ran my first week of DRY RUN. Paper trading, no real money at risk. Seven verified trades. The result: 0-7 . Every single trade lost. And it wasn't random. Every actual temperature came in higher than my forecast. Not by random amounts. By a consistent, painful margin. Something was systematically wrong, and I had no idea what. What This Post Covers The full damage report from my first week of weather trading on Polymarket. Every trade, every number, every wrong assumption. If you're thinking about building a prediction market bot, this is the episode that might save you from making the same mistakes I did — or at least convince you to paper trade first. The First Three Trades: March 5 I remember refreshing the Telegram bot report that morning, feeling pretty confident. Three cities, three forecasts, al...