Weather Bot — Episode 6: DRY RUN Results — 21 Predictions Across 5 Cities on Polymarket
Ten days. Twenty-one predictions. Five cities. No real money. The DRY RUN was supposed to answer one question: does the v1.5 strategy actually work, or did I just backtest myself into false confidence? I let the bot run from March 3 to March 11, scanning markets every five minutes, sending Telegram reports, tracking every forecast against every resolution. Here's what the data said. What This Post Covers The complete DRY RUN results — city by city, confidence level by confidence level. Which cities performed, which ones I probably should've dropped, and a dynamic exit simulation that changed how I think about this whole project. If you've been following along since the 0-7 disaster in Episode 3, this is where the v1.5 changes get their first real test. The Overall Numbers With the model maximum + city bias approach (v1.5), I got 12 correct predictions out of 21. That's a 57% hit rate — up from the 14% (1 out of 7) that the old model averaging approach produ...